Bruno Conte

Assistant Professor of Economics
Universitat Pompeu Fabra | bruno.conte[at]upf.edu

I study questions in environmental and resource economics using the tools from spatial economics and international trade.

Here is my CV and Google Scholar.

Working Papers and Work in Progress

• The Economics of the Global Water Cycle: An Integrated Assessment Model
  with F. Farrokhi and H. Massoni [
  abstract ]

  Economic water use generates dual global externalities: local extraction reduces downwind precipitation through the atmospheric water cycle, while international trade spatially propagates these hydrological shocks through the factor content of traded goods. To analyze these joint mechanisms, we build a dynamic spatial model integrated with a hydrological module -- to our knowledge, the first spatial integrated assessment model of the global water cycle. We also characterize the optimal policy within this high-dimensional framework, deriving a location-specific Pigouvian water tax equal to the local Social Cost of Water. Quantifying the model with global economic and hydrological data, we evaluate the welfare losses from uncoordinated extraction, simulate counterfactual policy regimes for the 21st century, and provide the first worldwide estimates of the Social Cost of Water.
• Green Development
  with J. Cruz, K. Desmet, and E. Rossi-Hansberg [
  abstract ]

  The fast decline in the cost of renewable energy has promoted a shift toward cleaner sources. In this paper, we evaluate whether the green transition might spur faster growth in parts of the developing world by reshaping the world's economic geography. To this end, we develop a spatial dynamic economic model with an explicit energy sector. In our model, locations differ in their endowments and technology to produce fossil fuels and clean energy, as well as in the costs of shipping these energy goods across locations. These factors, in turn, determine the level of investment between energy sources and, thus, the local pace of the green transition and the overall growth of the economy. We quantify the model for more than 18,000 locations in the world using data on fossil fuel reserves, clean energy suitability, taxes and subsidies by energy source, and transportation networks. Our simulations suggest a strong inertia, as the locations that currently produce fossil fuels and clean energy increase their extent of specialization over time. Although some regions of the developing world are geographically well endowed to generate clean energy, their overall low productivity hinders a green development.

Publications

• Climate Change and Migration: The Case of Africa [ replication |
  abstract ]

  How will future climate change affect Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in terms of migration and welfare? Can policymakers help SSA adapt to this process? I answer these questions with a quantitative framework that, coupled with rich spatial data and forecasts for the future climate, projects millions of climate migrants and unequal welfare losses across SSA. Investigating migration and trade liberalization as policy tools, I find persistent inequality in welfare losses if only migration barriers in SSA are reduced. Relaxing trade barriers addresses these distributional concerns, as do both policies combined. Yet, the policy mix is less effective in reducing aggregate losses due to inefficiencies arising from congestion externalities.
  Journal of the European Economic Association (CESifo Distinguished Research Affiliate Prize), 2026
• On the Geographic Implications of Carbon Taxes
  with K. Desmet and E. Rossi-Hansberg [ replication |
  abstract ]

  Using a multi-sector dynamic spatial integrated assessment model, we argue that a carbon tax introduced by the European Union and rebated locally can, if not too large, increase the size of Europe’s economy by concentrating economic activity in its high-productivity non-agricultural core and by incentivising immigration to the European Union. The resulting change in the spatial distribution of economic activity improves global efficiency and welfare. A carbon tax introduced by the United States generates similar effects. This stands in sharp contrast with standard models that ignore trade and migration in a world shaped by economic geography forces.
  The Economic Journal (lead article & Editor's choice), 2026
• Broadening Climate Migration Research Across Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation
  with C. Cattaneo, S. Shayegh, et al. [
  abstract ]

  Current climate migration literature focuses on establishing links between climate drivers and migration. However, it often overlooks the broader role that migration plays within the context of climate impacts, adaptation and the connection with mitigation. This Perspective highlights four key research gaps: (1) the effectiveness of migration as an adaptation strategy, (2) how migration interacts with in situ adaptation efforts, (3) migration’s impacts on origin and destination communities and (4) feedback between climate mitigation policies and migration. To address these gaps, we propose solutions grounded in strengthening conceptual frameworks, expanded and harmonized data, and advancing methodological innovation. Together, these efforts can inform policy-making to better protect vulnerable populations, allocate resources more effectively and strengthen resilience and justice.
  Nature Climate Change, 2026
• Climate Change, Migration, and Urbanization [
  abstract ]

  There is a clear consensus about the pressing concerns that climate change poses to the global economy and humanity. But what is the channel linking changes in the climate and economic outcomes? How could that map into future growth and development of the world economy? This chapter provides answers to these questions by focusing on the migration-urbanization link. It surveys the literature on these two topics as well as a rising set of papers studying the potential role of climate change therein. It also emphasizes research questions still unanswered, suggesting possible future venues of research.
  Handbook of Labor, Human Resources and Population Economics, 2023
• The Power of Markets: Impact of Desert Locust Invasions on Child Health
  with L. Piemontese and A. Tapsoba [ replication |
  abstract ]

  This paper investigates the consequences of the 2004 locust plague in Mali. We argue that in agricultural economies with a single harvest per year, this type of shock can affect households through two channels: first, a speculative/anticipatory effect that kicks in during the growing season, followed by a local crop failure effect after harvest. We document a substantial impact of the plague on crop price inflation before the harvest. Regarding health setbacks, children subject only to the speculative/anticipatory effect suffered as much as those exposed to the actual crop failure effect. The latter is more severe for children born in isolated areas.
  Journal of Health Economics, 2023
• Local Sectoral Specialization in a Warming World
  with K. Desmet, D. Nagy, and E. Rossi-Hansberg [ replication |
  abstract ]

  This paper quantitatively assesses the world’s changing economic geography and sectoral specialization due to global warming. It proposes a two-sector dynamic spatial growth model that incorporates the relation between economic activity, carbon emissions and temperature. The model is taken to the data at the 1° by 1° resolution for the entire world. Over a 200-year horizon, rising temperatures consistent with emissions under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 push people and economic activity northwards to Siberia, Canada and Scandinavia. Compared with a world without climate change, clusters of agricultural specialization shift from Central Africa, Brazil and India’s Ganges Valley, to Central Asia, parts of China and northern Canada. Equatorial latitudes that lose agriculture specialize more in non-agriculture but, due to their persistently low productivity, lose population. By the year 2200, predicted losses in real GDP and utility are 6% and 15%, respectively. Higher trade costs make adaptation through changes in sectoral specialization more costly, leading to less geographic concentration in agriculture and larger climate-induced migration.
  Journal of Economic Geography, 2021

Other Writings and Policy Work

• Adapting to Climate Change Across Space: Policy Recommendations for Europe (2025)
  with H. Massoni, in: EconPol Forum

• Trade to Adapt: Changing Specialization to Cope with Climate Change (2021)
  with K. Desmet, D. Nagy, and E. Rossi-Hansberg, in: Combatting Climate Change: A CEPR Collection, E-book

• Spatial Development and Mobility Frictions in Latin America: Theory-Based Empirical Evidence (2021)
  with E. Ianchovichina [ old slides ]

• Quality of Institutions and Structural Transformation in Northern Africa (2019)
  with Z. Benhamouche, T. Fetzer, and H. Mueller